Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Will Turkey start the next war?

By Dr. Bayad Jamal Ali
            The preparations for the Mosul attack has been going on for a significant time, many countries and factions have been involved in these preparations from the US – led coalition, Iraq, Iran, Kurdistan, and of course, Turkey among many others.

The recent statement by Turkey`s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that only Sunni Muslims can live in Mosul spurred a public condemnation in Iraq, yet still some Sunni factions welcomed it, and some Kurdish factions between the interest oriented and the Islamic oriented political parties partially accepted the statement.

 

The existence of the Turkish army in the Iraqi territory under the excuse of fighting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has created tension and harsh statement exchange between Baghdad and Ankara, yet the weak Iraqi government is helpless against all its problems, in turn, increasing Erdogan`s ambition in reclaiming Mosul Vilayet.

 

The Turkish media has been promoting the idea of a greater Turkey with a new redrawn map that includes Thrace, Macedonia, Crete, Cyprus, Armenia, Aleppo and Northern Syria, Mosul, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq including the disputed territories like Kirkuk.

 

Economic wise, Turkey has been successful in flooding these areas dependent on Turkish products, as well as an invasion of Turkish businesses and companies in all the economic and business sectors of these companies. No doubt that Iraq after 2003 till today has been importing almost everything from Turkey, yet most important is that Turkey has almost full control over Kurdistan`s Region oil export. As the Kurdish region export its oil through Ceyhan port and the oil revenues are delivered to Turkish banks, as both sides have signed a fifty year oil deal.

 

Moreover, Turkey managed to attract the Syrian businessmen and factories to Turkey by offering them tax exemptions and subsidies so they can move their factories from Aleppo and other war torn Syrian cities to Turkey.

 

This Turkish economic expansion on the region along with the Sunni Islam rhetoric has strengthened their position in the Middle East as one of the major players allied with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf state against the Shia Islam rhetoric alliance of  Iran – Iraq- Syria`s Assad – Lebanon`s Hizbollah.



The Mosul Attack is important as it will take the Middle East to the next phase of who can get the bigger slice of the pie, and if would the economic ambitions will lead to territorial expansion and even a regional war?

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